Photo by Karolina Grabowska from Pexels

Accompanying video is here: https://youtu.be/asZ5yAkRQ2c

See the other parts here:

Part 1:

Part 2:

There are many different ways one could take the data from the previous two posts and combine them to make an improved DIX+GEX Sell Signal. I am going to keep it true to the original as much as possible and only add in a simple filter for a higher than average 20 day GEX, and a lower than average 20 day DIX. So leading into the DIX+GEX Sell Signal we see highish GEX and lowish DIX. …


Bears can be fun!

Let’s look at several backtests, and data points that say this rally may end sooner than the last couple rallies out of corrections we have had.

Accompanying YouTube video:

https://youtu.be/FO1mf8FhyMI

Intro

SPX made new highs this week, and the Nasdaq continues to be strong. Both of which were my expectation, if you read my past posts. That being said, the strength and speed of the rally on SPX in particular, has been a bit surprising to me. I have been saying “I lean bullish” for most of the last year. This post will be one for the Bears in many ways, as I am seeing several things happen under the surface that are concerning. From a price-action perspective, everything is fine, though there are some Breadth concerns…


Let’s get into the GEX part of it. Below is the GEX Chapter from my book, in the third and final blog post I will combine the two. The third post is NOT a part of the book.

SELL SIGNALS — GEX

GEX is a model that primarily is used more as a barometer of projected future volatility. High GEX equates to lower forward Realized Volatility and low GEX equates to higher forward volatility. However, we have seen that many major tops over the years have seen very high relative GEX prior to the top. It’s possible that using a similar methodology to the…


This week’s video: https://youtu.be/yZ8QNEdC7bg

Below I am going to share the DIX Sell Signals Chapter where I improve upon the DIX+GEX sell signal using only DIX. In a future blog post, also a chapter in the book, I will share the GEX-only sell signal. And eventually, I may do a post combining the two, which is not a part of the book. Before I copy-paste that chapter below, I wanted to quickly outline what the new blog/video schedule is going to look like.

  • The first week of the month. Big Update on the Market on Medium and Youtube.
  • The second…

Introduction, What comes with the book, and the First Chapter-Study Major Tops and Bottoms.

SELL SIGNALS

Below is the beginning of my book, available on Amazon here: SELL SIGNALS. This is a draft version. I have made some edits to the final version, but copy-pasting from Kindle Create is not nearly as easy as it is from Google Docs. So there may be a few mistakes here and there, and I am obviously omitting the Discord link and a few other things. But, overall this should serve as a decent preview and I will post more chapters at a later date as well.

Disclaimer

The advice provided in this book is general advice only…


Book Available for pre-order releases on 4/8/21

Video: https://youtu.be/iqGfZn7OZS8

It’s been a wild ride the last few weeks in the market. I thought it would be a good time to update everyone on where I stand in regards to the market, and also to announce that I finished my book, Sell Signals, and it is now available on Amazon for pre-order here: Sell Signals

With the book, you will receive access to my private Discord server as well. For those that do not like to spend money, trust me I am one of those types of people, I am planning to slowly release chapters on this blog…


Photo by eberhard grossgasteiger from Pexels

Extremes…

It has been a long time since I did a market update or a blog at all. I am hoping to increase the frequency of my posts in 2021, I will have an announcement regarding that at the end of this post.

As for the market, 2020 was a wild one. 2021 is set up to continue to be wild. 2020 was a year of record extremes, both bullish and bearish. I am not going to get into that, you all lived it and probably saw a lot of the extremes first hand. My view going into 2021 is that…


One way that you can support my blog, is to check out the affiliate links that I have on this page. I only post affiliate links of services that I personally use, and in most cases using the link provides a discount to the user of the link and gives me a small kickback. It is a win-win for all involved.

Affiliate Links:

AMAZON AFFILIATE LINK

TRADINGVIEW REFERRAL

INTERACTIVE BROKERS REFERRAL

COINBASE REFERRAL

FINVIZ REFERRAL

SIERRA CHARTS REFERRAL

SPOTGAMMA REFERRAL

SENTIMENTRADER REFERRAL-coming soon


Breadth Divergences. SPX up .5% and NYSE A-D line down

Today’s hot topic appears to be the poor participation rally we saw today. Steve Deppe did a backtest of SPX up .5% and NYAD -100 or more: https://twitter.com/SJD10304/status/1285330195746975745?s=20

It’s definitely bearish. Small sample size, but bearish. Short term.

However, scratch under the surface a bit more and perhaps it is not as bad. First of all, there is still a lot of positioning metrics showing very light positioning. COT, and things like this:

Implied correlations collapsing These guys will need to put money to work as vols continue moving lower……


Instead of the long Twitter threads like I have been doing, I am going to start doing small blog posts instead. A much easier way to make a quick point, and will get my blog more active again. I have been working on some deeper blog post topics, and hopefully, I will get them done soon. This blog is pretty low on my priority list, but I am getting closer to having time to focus on it for a while.

There has been a lot of talk about the low PC ratios in the last few days. Low PC ratios…

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store